IMF Raises Ghana's 2026 Growth Forecast To 5.7%, Above Government Target

The International Monetary Fund has upgraded Ghana's economic outlook, projecting growth of 5.7% for 2026, up from its earlier forecast of 4.6%.

The new projection, contained in the Fund's October 2026 World Economic Outlook released on Monday, October 13 on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, is an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points from its April estimates.

The revised figure is also higher than government's own growth target of 4.8% set out in the 2026 Budget.

According to the IMF, Ghana's growth is however expected to ease slightly to 5.2% in 2027, after the strong performance anticipated this year.

On the price front, the Fund has cut its year-end inflation forecast for Ghana sharply to 4.8%, down from 7.9% projected in April. The new forecast sits below the Bank of Ghana's medium-term target of 8%.

The projection comes after inflation dropped to 5.2% in September, and signals a further cooling of prices before the end of the year. If achieved, it would mark the second straight year Ghana closes the year with single-digit inflation, after a similar outcome in 2025.

The IMF says the improved outlook reflects Ghana's fiscal consolidation efforts, targeted spending to support growth, and strong export earnings, especially from gold, which has helped strengthen the country's external position.

Data from the Ghana Statistical Service shows the economy grew by 6.0% in the second quarter of 2026, with first-half growth averaging 6.2%.

Despite the positive outlook, the Fund cautioned that sustaining the recovery will require continued fiscal discipline and diversification of exports, as heavy reliance on commodities like gold leaves the economy vulnerable to global price swings.

The IMF also warned of global risks including geopolitical tensions, rising trade frictions, high public debt and uncertainty around artificial intelligence investments. It projects global growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with global inflation at 4.7% and 4.1% respectively.